Computer Forecasting
Computer forecasting began in the mid-1950’s (Engelbert, 1997,
p. 420). Before this, day to day
forecasts could only be made thirty-six hours in advance (Engelbert, 1997, p.
420). Since the development of
computers used to perform numerical forecasting, daily forecasts can be made
six to ten days in advance (Engelbert, 1997, p. 420).
Numerical forecasting is the use of mathematical equations to predict the
weather (Engelbert, 1997, p. 420).
p. 420). Before this, day to day
forecasts could only be made thirty-six hours in advance (Engelbert, 1997, p.
420). Since the development of
computers used to perform numerical forecasting, daily forecasts can be made
six to ten days in advance (Engelbert, 1997, p. 420).
Numerical forecasting is the use of mathematical equations to predict the
weather (Engelbert, 1997, p. 420).
A Brief History
Mathematician Lewis Fry Richardson introduced the use of
mathematical equations in weather forecasting with his 1922 report “Weather
prediction by numerical process” (Engelbert, 1997, p. 420).
Richardson demonstrated that a large number of calculations would have to
be made rapidly to produce accurate numerical predictions (Engelbert, 1997, p.
420). It took Richardson many
months to create a set of calculations that could represent the behavior of the
various atmospheric processes necessary to create a sample twenty-four hour
process (Engelbert, 1997, p. 420).
mathematical equations in weather forecasting with his 1922 report “Weather
prediction by numerical process” (Engelbert, 1997, p. 420).
Richardson demonstrated that a large number of calculations would have to
be made rapidly to produce accurate numerical predictions (Engelbert, 1997, p.
420). It took Richardson many
months to create a set of calculations that could represent the behavior of the
various atmospheric processes necessary to create a sample twenty-four hour
process (Engelbert, 1997, p. 420).
Where is Computer Forecasting Today?
Today’s forecasters use a system called numerical weather
prediction (NWP)
to forecast the weather. Numerical weather prediction models
are one of the
most important tools for forecasters. The models, using many
millions of numbers that represent weather parameters such as temperature,
pressure, wind, etc., attempt to represent current weather conditions and then
make a prediction of the future state of the atmosphere ("Weather Modeling and
Prediction", 2011). By doing this, the computer uses a grid system to divide up
the atmosphere at many levels in the vertical, from the surface of the
Earth to the stratosphere ("Weather Modeling and Prediction", 2011). At
each level the horizontal spacing between points is regular, usually a set
number of kilometers ("Weather Modeling and Prediction", 2011).
prediction (NWP)
to forecast the weather. Numerical weather prediction models
are one of the
most important tools for forecasters. The models, using many
millions of numbers that represent weather parameters such as temperature,
pressure, wind, etc., attempt to represent current weather conditions and then
make a prediction of the future state of the atmosphere ("Weather Modeling and
Prediction", 2011). By doing this, the computer uses a grid system to divide up
the atmosphere at many levels in the vertical, from the surface of the
Earth to the stratosphere ("Weather Modeling and Prediction", 2011). At
each level the horizontal spacing between points is regular, usually a set
number of kilometers ("Weather Modeling and Prediction", 2011).
Data Assimilation is the process whereby weather observations are incorporated into a computer model that predicts the weather. Supercomputers that are now used to run weather models, project how the current weather condition are
expected to change ("Weather Modeling and Prediction", 2011). The computers produce forecasts at seventy two hours and beyond and are then sent to NWS (National Weather Service) forecast offices and other users ("Weather Modeling and Prediction", 2011).
Meteorologists use these model predictions as a guide, for comparing different
models to come up with an accurate forecast ("Weather Modeling and Prediction", 2011).
expected to change ("Weather Modeling and Prediction", 2011). The computers produce forecasts at seventy two hours and beyond and are then sent to NWS (National Weather Service) forecast offices and other users ("Weather Modeling and Prediction", 2011).
Meteorologists use these model predictions as a guide, for comparing different
models to come up with an accurate forecast ("Weather Modeling and Prediction", 2011).